Forecast accuracy: Austin, TX, US KAUS

How far each forecast landed from the value the market settled on. All stations · Forecast

Kalshi · NWS climate report · °F

Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.

Forecaster	Lead	MAE °F	vs blend	Bias	Within 1°	Days
Market forecast	D1	1.9	−0.6	−0.2	52%	934
Market forecast	D2	2.1	−0.5	−0.2	49%	934
Market forecast	D3	2.4	−0.4	−0.2	44%	934
Blend (median)	D1	2.5	—	−1.5	36%	934
Blend (median)	D2	2.7	—	−1.5	34%	934
Blend (median)	D3	2.8	—	−1.4	32%	934
NBM	D1	1.9	−0.6	−0.2	52%	934
NBM	D2	2.1	−0.5	−0.2	49%	934
NBM	D3	2.4	−0.4	−0.2	44%	934
AIFS	D1	5.0	+2.5	−4.9	8%	934
AIFS	D2	5.1	+2.4	−4.9	9%	934
AIFS	D3	5.1	+2.3	−4.9	9%	934
ENS	D1	3.1	+0.6	−2.1	27%	934
ENS	D2	3.3	+0.6	−2.1	28%	934
ENS	D3	3.4	+0.6	−2.0	26%	933
GFS	D1	2.8	+0.3	+0.2	35%	934
GFS	D2	3.1	+0.4	+0.4	33%	934
GFS	D3	3.4	+0.6	+0.4	32%	934

Forecaster	Lead	MAE °F	vs blend	Bias	Within 1°	Days
Market forecast	D1	3.0	−1.2	+1.1	33%	934
Market forecast	D2	3.2	−1.1	+1.2	31%	934
Market forecast	D3	3.3	−1.1	+1.2	30%	934
Blend (median)	D1	4.2	—	+3.4	23%	934
Blend (median)	D2	4.3	—	+3.5	22%	934
Blend (median)	D3	4.4	—	+3.6	23%	934
NBM	D1	3.0	−1.2	+1.1	33%	934
NBM	D2	3.2	−1.1	+1.2	31%	934
NBM	D3	3.3	−1.1	+1.2	30%	934
AIFS	D1	4.0	−0.2	+3.6	25%	934
AIFS	D2	4.2	−0.2	+3.8	25%	934
AIFS	D3	4.4	−0.1	+3.9	24%	934
ENS	D1	4.8	+0.6	+4.1	21%	934
ENS	D2	4.9	+0.5	+4.2	21%	934
ENS	D3	4.9	+0.5	+4.3	20%	933
GFS	D1	5.6	+1.4	+4.5	17%	934
GFS	D2	5.8	+1.4	+4.6	19%	934
GFS	D3	5.9	+1.5	+4.7	19%	934

Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.

Held back, scored on 1% of day-ahead days (needs 80%).

Scored 2026-10-28 03:48 UTC, daily at 16:30 UTC. Markdown · Method