# Forecast accuracy: Austin, TX, US (KAUS)

How far each forecast landed from the value the market settled on.

## Kalshi · NWS climate report · °F

### Live

Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.

### Backfill · highs

| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 1.9 | −0.6 | −0.2 | 52% | 934 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 2.1 | −0.5 | −0.2 | 49% | 934 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 2.4 | −0.4 | −0.2 | 44% | 934 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 2.5 | — | −1.5 | 36% | 934 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 2.7 | — | −1.5 | 34% | 934 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 2.8 | — | −1.4 | 32% | 934 |
| NBM | D1 | 1.9 | −0.6 | −0.2 | 52% | 934 |
| NBM | D2 | 2.1 | −0.5 | −0.2 | 49% | 934 |
| NBM | D3 | 2.4 | −0.4 | −0.2 | 44% | 934 |
| AIFS | D1 | 5.0 | +2.5 | −4.9 | 8% | 934 |
| AIFS | D2 | 5.1 | +2.4 | −4.9 | 9% | 934 |
| AIFS | D3 | 5.1 | +2.3 | −4.9 | 9% | 934 |
| ENS | D1 | 3.1 | +0.6 | −2.1 | 27% | 934 |
| ENS | D2 | 3.3 | +0.6 | −2.1 | 28% | 934 |
| ENS | D3 | 3.4 | +0.6 | −2.0 | 26% | 933 |
| GFS | D1 | 2.8 | +0.3 | +0.2 | 35% | 934 |
| GFS | D2 | 3.1 | +0.4 | +0.4 | 33% | 934 |
| GFS | D3 | 3.4 | +0.6 | +0.4 | 32% | 934 |

### Backfill · lows

| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 3.0 | −1.2 | +1.1 | 33% | 934 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 3.2 | −1.1 | +1.2 | 31% | 934 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 3.3 | −1.1 | +1.2 | 30% | 934 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 4.2 | — | +3.4 | 23% | 934 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 4.3 | — | +3.5 | 22% | 934 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 4.4 | — | +3.6 | 23% | 934 |
| NBM | D1 | 3.0 | −1.2 | +1.1 | 33% | 934 |
| NBM | D2 | 3.2 | −1.1 | +1.2 | 31% | 934 |
| NBM | D3 | 3.3 | −1.1 | +1.2 | 30% | 934 |
| AIFS | D1 | 4.0 | −0.2 | +3.6 | 25% | 934 |
| AIFS | D2 | 4.2 | −0.2 | +3.8 | 25% | 934 |
| AIFS | D3 | 4.4 | −0.1 | +3.9 | 24% | 934 |
| ENS | D1 | 4.8 | +0.6 | +4.1 | 21% | 934 |
| ENS | D2 | 4.9 | +0.5 | +4.2 | 21% | 934 |
| ENS | D3 | 4.9 | +0.5 | +4.3 | 20% | 933 |
| GFS | D1 | 5.6 | +1.4 | +4.5 | 17% | 934 |
| GFS | D2 | 5.8 | +1.4 | +4.6 | 19% | 934 |
| GFS | D3 | 5.9 | +1.5 | +4.7 | 19% | 934 |

## Polymarket · routine METARs · °F

### Live

Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.

### Backfill

Held back, scored on 1% of day-ahead days (needs 80%).

Method: https://groundhog.markets/skill#method
Forecast: https://groundhog.markets/p/austin

Scored 2026-10-28 03:48 UTC, daily at 16:30 UTC.
Page: https://groundhog.markets/skill/KAUS