Forecast accuracy: Trenton, NJ, US KTTN
How far each forecast landed from the value the market settled on. All stations · Forecast
Kalshi · NWS climate report · °F
Live
Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.
Backfill · highs
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 2.0 | +0.1 | −0.2 | 50% | 931 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 2.3 | +0.1 | −0.3 | 44% | 931 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 2.7 | +0.2 | −0.3 | 39% | 931 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 1.9 | — | −0.3 | 50% | 931 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 2.2 | — | −0.5 | 45% | 931 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 2.5 | — | −0.4 | 41% | 931 |
| NBM | D1 | 2.0 | +0.1 | −0.2 | 50% | 931 |
| NBM | D2 | 2.3 | +0.1 | −0.3 | 44% | 931 |
| NBM | D3 | 2.7 | +0.2 | −0.3 | 39% | 931 |
| AIFS | D1 | 2.0 | +0.1 | −0.3 | 47% | 931 |
| AIFS | D2 | 2.3 | +0.1 | −0.6 | 44% | 931 |
| AIFS | D3 | 2.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | 41% | 931 |
| ENS | D1 | 2.5 | +0.7 | −0.8 | 38% | 931 |
| ENS | D2 | 2.9 | +0.7 | −1.0 | 32% | 931 |
| ENS | D3 | 3.2 | +0.7 | −0.9 | 30% | 930 |
| GFS | D1 | 2.5 | +0.6 | 0.0 | 40% | 931 |
| GFS | D2 | 2.9 | +0.7 | −0.2 | 34% | 931 |
| GFS | D3 | 3.4 | +0.9 | −0.1 | 32% | 931 |
Backfill · lows
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 2.4 | −0.3 | +1.0 | 43% | 931 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 2.5 | −0.3 | +1.0 | 38% | 931 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 2.7 | −0.2 | +1.1 | 35% | 931 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 2.7 | — | +2.2 | 35% | 931 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 2.8 | — | +2.2 | 34% | 931 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 2.9 | — | +2.2 | 33% | 931 |
| NBM | D1 | 2.4 | −0.3 | +1.0 | 43% | 931 |
| NBM | D2 | 2.5 | −0.3 | +1.0 | 38% | 931 |
| NBM | D3 | 2.7 | −0.2 | +1.1 | 35% | 931 |
| AIFS | D1 | 4.5 | +1.8 | +4.5 | 11% | 931 |
| AIFS | D2 | 4.5 | +1.7 | +4.5 | 13% | 931 |
| AIFS | D3 | 4.6 | +1.7 | +4.5 | 13% | 931 |
| ENS | D1 | 2.8 | +0.1 | +2.1 | 33% | 931 |
| ENS | D2 | 2.9 | +0.2 | +2.0 | 32% | 931 |
| ENS | D3 | 3.1 | +0.2 | +2.0 | 30% | 930 |
| GFS | D1 | 3.0 | +0.3 | +1.4 | 36% | 931 |
| GFS | D2 | 3.2 | +0.4 | +1.5 | 30% | 931 |
| GFS | D3 | 3.5 | +0.6 | +1.5 | 30% | 931 |
Scored 2026-10-28 03:48 UTC, daily at 16:30 UTC. Markdown · Method