Forecast accuracy: San Francisco, CA, US KSFO
How far each forecast landed from the value the market settled on. All stations · Forecast
Kalshi · NWS climate report · °F
Live
Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.
Backfill · highs
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 2.3 | −0.4 | 0.0 | 41% | 930 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 2.5 | −0.4 | 0.0 | 42% | 930 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 2.6 | −0.4 | 0.0 | 37% | 930 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 2.7 | — | −0.4 | 32% | 930 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 2.9 | — | −0.5 | 31% | 930 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 3.0 | — | −0.5 | 28% | 930 |
| NBM | D1 | 2.3 | −0.4 | 0.0 | 41% | 930 |
| NBM | D2 | 2.5 | −0.4 | 0.0 | 42% | 930 |
| NBM | D3 | 2.6 | −0.4 | 0.0 | 37% | 930 |
| AIFS | D1 | 3.2 | +0.4 | −2.1 | 26% | 930 |
| AIFS | D2 | 3.3 | +0.3 | −2.1 | 26% | 930 |
| AIFS | D3 | 3.4 | +0.4 | −2.2 | 26% | 930 |
| ENS | D1 | 3.3 | +0.6 | +0.3 | 27% | 929 |
| ENS | D2 | 3.5 | +0.6 | +0.2 | 25% | 929 |
| ENS | D3 | 3.6 | +0.6 | +0.1 | 25% | 929 |
| GFS | D1 | 3.5 | +0.8 | +0.1 | 27% | 930 |
| GFS | D2 | 3.8 | +0.8 | +0.1 | 25% | 930 |
| GFS | D3 | 3.9 | +0.9 | 0.0 | 24% | 930 |
Backfill · lows
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 1.3 | −0.2 | +0.1 | 65% | 929 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 1.4 | −0.2 | +0.2 | 64% | 929 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 1.5 | −0.2 | +0.2 | 60% | 929 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 1.5 | — | −0.4 | 58% | 929 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 1.6 | — | −0.4 | 55% | 929 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 1.6 | — | −0.4 | 54% | 929 |
| NBM | D1 | 1.3 | −0.2 | +0.1 | 65% | 929 |
| NBM | D2 | 1.4 | −0.2 | +0.2 | 64% | 929 |
| NBM | D3 | 1.5 | −0.2 | +0.2 | 60% | 929 |
| AIFS | D1 | 1.6 | 0.0 | −0.1 | 58% | 929 |
| AIFS | D2 | 1.6 | 0.0 | −0.1 | 57% | 929 |
| AIFS | D3 | 1.6 | 0.0 | −0.2 | 56% | 929 |
| ENS | D1 | 1.9 | +0.4 | −0.5 | 49% | 928 |
| ENS | D2 | 2.0 | +0.4 | −0.6 | 48% | 928 |
| ENS | D3 | 2.0 | +0.4 | −0.7 | 48% | 928 |
| GFS | D1 | 2.8 | +1.2 | −1.2 | 27% | 929 |
| GFS | D2 | 2.8 | +1.2 | −1.2 | 26% | 929 |
| GFS | D3 | 2.9 | +1.3 | −1.3 | 24% | 929 |
Polymarket · routine METARs · °F
Live
Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.
Backfill
Held back, scored on 4% of day-ahead days (needs 80%).
Scored 2026-10-28 03:48 UTC, daily at 16:30 UTC. Markdown · Method