Forecast accuracy: Seattle, WA, US KSEA
How far each forecast landed from the value the market settled on. All stations · Forecast
Kalshi · NWS climate report · °F
Live
Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.
Backfill · highs
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 1.8 | −0.3 | −0.1 | 54% | 933 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 1.9 | −0.4 | −0.1 | 50% | 933 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 2.2 | −0.2 | −0.1 | 45% | 933 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 2.1 | — | −1.0 | 43% | 933 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 2.3 | — | −1.1 | 38% | 933 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 2.4 | — | −1.0 | 39% | 933 |
| NBM | D1 | 1.8 | −0.3 | −0.1 | 54% | 933 |
| NBM | D2 | 1.9 | −0.4 | −0.1 | 50% | 933 |
| NBM | D3 | 2.2 | −0.2 | −0.1 | 45% | 933 |
| AIFS | D1 | 3.5 | +1.4 | −3.3 | 21% | 933 |
| AIFS | D2 | 3.6 | +1.3 | −3.3 | 19% | 933 |
| AIFS | D3 | 3.7 | +1.2 | −3.3 | 21% | 933 |
| ENS | D1 | 2.7 | +0.5 | −1.7 | 32% | 932 |
| ENS | D2 | 2.8 | +0.5 | −1.6 | 31% | 932 |
| ENS | D3 | 2.9 | +0.5 | −1.5 | 32% | 932 |
| GFS | D1 | 2.8 | +0.7 | +0.6 | 40% | 933 |
| GFS | D2 | 3.1 | +0.8 | +0.4 | 35% | 933 |
| GFS | D3 | 3.3 | +0.9 | +0.6 | 33% | 933 |
Backfill · lows
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 1.4 | +0.1 | +0.4 | 63% | 932 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 1.5 | +0.1 | +0.4 | 60% | 932 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 1.6 | +0.1 | +0.5 | 56% | 932 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 1.3 | — | +0.2 | 66% | 932 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 1.4 | — | +0.2 | 63% | 932 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 1.5 | — | +0.3 | 60% | 932 |
| NBM | D1 | 1.4 | +0.1 | +0.4 | 63% | 932 |
| NBM | D2 | 1.5 | +0.1 | +0.4 | 60% | 932 |
| NBM | D3 | 1.6 | +0.1 | +0.5 | 56% | 932 |
| AIFS | D1 | 1.8 | +0.4 | +0.4 | 50% | 932 |
| AIFS | D2 | 1.7 | +0.3 | +0.5 | 51% | 932 |
| AIFS | D3 | 1.7 | +0.3 | +0.6 | 50% | 932 |
| ENS | D1 | 1.5 | +0.2 | +0.2 | 58% | 931 |
| ENS | D2 | 1.5 | +0.2 | +0.2 | 57% | 931 |
| ENS | D3 | 1.7 | +0.2 | +0.2 | 53% | 931 |
| GFS | D1 | 1.8 | +0.5 | −0.2 | 50% | 932 |
| GFS | D2 | 1.9 | +0.6 | −0.4 | 47% | 932 |
| GFS | D3 | 2.1 | +0.6 | −0.4 | 48% | 932 |
Polymarket · routine METARs · °F
Live
Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.
Backfill
Held back, scored on 5% of day-ahead days (needs 80%).
Scored 2026-10-28 03:48 UTC, daily at 16:30 UTC. Markdown · Method