Forecast accuracy: Miami, FL, US KMIA
How far each forecast landed from the value the market settled on. All stations · Forecast
Kalshi · NWS climate report · °F
Live
Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.
Backfill · highs
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 1.1 | −2.0 | −0.1 | 74% | 926 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 1.2 | −2.0 | −0.1 | 70% | 926 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 1.3 | −1.9 | −0.1 | 66% | 926 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 3.1 | — | −3.0 | 12% | 926 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 3.2 | — | −3.0 | 11% | 926 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 3.2 | — | −2.9 | 13% | 926 |
| NBM | D1 | 1.1 | −2.0 | −0.1 | 74% | 926 |
| NBM | D2 | 1.2 | −2.0 | −0.1 | 70% | 926 |
| NBM | D3 | 1.3 | −1.9 | −0.1 | 66% | 926 |
| AIFS | D1 | 4.4 | +1.3 | −4.4 | 4% | 926 |
| AIFS | D2 | 4.4 | +1.3 | −4.4 | 4% | 926 |
| AIFS | D3 | 4.4 | +1.2 | −4.3 | 6% | 926 |
| ENS | D1 | 3.9 | +0.7 | −3.8 | 8% | 926 |
| ENS | D2 | 3.9 | +0.7 | −3.8 | 8% | 926 |
| ENS | D3 | 3.9 | +0.7 | −3.8 | 9% | 925 |
| GFS | D1 | 2.8 | −0.3 | −2.3 | 21% | 926 |
| GFS | D2 | 2.9 | −0.3 | −2.3 | 18% | 926 |
| GFS | D3 | 3.0 | −0.2 | −2.3 | 20% | 926 |
Backfill · lows
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 1.7 | −0.2 | +0.6 | 56% | 924 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 1.8 | −0.2 | +0.5 | 51% | 924 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 1.9 | −0.2 | +0.6 | 51% | 924 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 1.9 | — | +1.6 | 51% | 924 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 2.0 | — | +1.6 | 49% | 924 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 2.1 | — | +1.7 | 48% | 924 |
| NBM | D1 | 1.7 | −0.2 | +0.6 | 56% | 924 |
| NBM | D2 | 1.8 | −0.2 | +0.5 | 51% | 924 |
| NBM | D3 | 1.9 | −0.2 | +0.6 | 51% | 924 |
| AIFS | D1 | 2.7 | +0.8 | +2.6 | 33% | 924 |
| AIFS | D2 | 2.7 | +0.7 | +2.6 | 33% | 924 |
| AIFS | D3 | 2.8 | +0.7 | +2.7 | 33% | 924 |
| ENS | D1 | 1.6 | −0.3 | 0.0 | 57% | 924 |
| ENS | D2 | 1.7 | −0.3 | 0.0 | 52% | 924 |
| ENS | D3 | 1.8 | −0.3 | 0.0 | 52% | 923 |
| GFS | D1 | 4.0 | +2.1 | +4.0 | 17% | 924 |
| GFS | D2 | 4.1 | +2.1 | +4.0 | 18% | 924 |
| GFS | D3 | 4.2 | +2.1 | +4.1 | 18% | 924 |
Polymarket · routine METARs · °F
Live
Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.
Backfill
Held back, scored on 1% of day-ahead days (needs 80%).
Scored 2026-10-28 03:48 UTC, daily at 16:30 UTC. Markdown · Method