Forecast accuracy: Chicago, IL, US KMDW
How far each forecast landed from the value the market settled on. All stations · Forecast
Kalshi · NWS climate report · °F
Live
Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.
Backfill · highs
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 2.2 | −0.3 | −0.4 | 44% | 935 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 2.5 | −0.3 | −0.4 | 39% | 935 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 2.9 | −0.2 | −0.4 | 35% | 935 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 2.5 | — | −1.8 | 39% | 935 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 2.7 | — | −1.7 | 36% | 935 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 3.0 | — | −1.7 | 32% | 935 |
| NBM | D1 | 2.2 | −0.3 | −0.4 | 44% | 935 |
| NBM | D2 | 2.5 | −0.3 | −0.4 | 39% | 935 |
| NBM | D3 | 2.9 | −0.2 | −0.4 | 35% | 935 |
| AIFS | D1 | 4.6 | +2.1 | −4.5 | 14% | 935 |
| AIFS | D2 | 4.7 | +1.9 | −4.5 | 14% | 935 |
| AIFS | D3 | 4.8 | +1.7 | −4.4 | 16% | 935 |
| ENS | D1 | 3.2 | +0.7 | −2.3 | 27% | 935 |
| ENS | D2 | 3.4 | +0.7 | −2.2 | 27% | 935 |
| ENS | D3 | 3.6 | +0.6 | −2.2 | 27% | 934 |
| GFS | D1 | 2.6 | +0.1 | −0.7 | 39% | 935 |
| GFS | D2 | 3.0 | +0.3 | −0.6 | 34% | 935 |
| GFS | D3 | 3.6 | +0.6 | −0.6 | 29% | 935 |
Backfill · lows
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 2.4 | +0.5 | +1.1 | 47% | 935 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 2.5 | +0.5 | +1.1 | 42% | 935 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 2.7 | +0.5 | +1.1 | 40% | 935 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 1.8 | — | +0.2 | 54% | 935 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 2.0 | — | +0.3 | 50% | 935 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 2.2 | — | +0.3 | 46% | 935 |
| NBM | D1 | 2.4 | +0.5 | +1.1 | 47% | 935 |
| NBM | D2 | 2.5 | +0.5 | +1.1 | 42% | 935 |
| NBM | D3 | 2.7 | +0.5 | +1.1 | 40% | 935 |
| AIFS | D1 | 2.3 | +0.5 | +0.7 | 44% | 935 |
| AIFS | D2 | 2.4 | +0.4 | +0.7 | 42% | 935 |
| AIFS | D3 | 2.6 | +0.4 | +0.9 | 40% | 935 |
| ENS | D1 | 2.5 | +0.7 | −1.3 | 38% | 935 |
| ENS | D2 | 2.6 | +0.6 | −1.3 | 38% | 935 |
| ENS | D3 | 2.8 | +0.6 | −1.2 | 37% | 934 |
| GFS | D1 | 2.5 | +0.7 | +0.4 | 36% | 935 |
| GFS | D2 | 2.8 | +0.8 | +0.5 | 33% | 935 |
| GFS | D3 | 3.0 | +0.8 | +0.5 | 32% | 935 |
Scored 2026-10-28 03:48 UTC, daily at 16:30 UTC. Markdown · Method