Forecast accuracy: Los Angeles, CA, US KLAX

How far each forecast landed from the value the market settled on. All stations · Forecast

Kalshi · NWS climate report · °F

Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.

Forecaster	Lead	MAE °F	vs blend	Bias	Within 1°	Days
Market forecast	D1	2.2	−2.9	−0.2	46%	933
Market forecast	D2	2.4	−2.8	−0.3	44%	933
Market forecast	D3	2.7	−2.7	−0.3	40%	933
Blend (median)	D1	5.1	—	+4.1	19%	933
Blend (median)	D2	5.2	—	+4.2	20%	933
Blend (median)	D3	5.3	—	+4.2	19%	933
NBM	D1	2.2	−2.9	−0.2	46%	933
NBM	D2	2.4	−2.8	−0.3	44%	933
NBM	D3	2.7	−2.7	−0.3	40%	933
AIFS	D1	3.9	−1.2	+2.1	26%	933
AIFS	D2	3.9	−1.3	+2.1	26%	933
AIFS	D3	4.0	−1.3	+2.1	24%	933
ENS	D1	7.5	+2.5	+6.7	13%	932
ENS	D2	7.7	+2.5	+6.9	13%	932
ENS	D3	7.9	+2.5	+7.0	13%	932
GFS	D1	7.0	+2.0	+6.6	14%	933
GFS	D2	7.3	+2.1	+6.8	14%	933
GFS	D3	7.4	+2.1	+6.8	13%	933

Forecaster	Lead	MAE °F	vs blend	Bias	Within 1°	Days
Market forecast	D1	1.4	0.0	0.0	63%	933
Market forecast	D2	1.4	0.0	0.0	61%	933
Market forecast	D3	1.5	0.0	−0.1	59%	933
Blend (median)	D1	1.4	—	+0.2	65%	933
Blend (median)	D2	1.4	—	+0.2	61%	933
Blend (median)	D3	1.5	—	+0.2	60%	933
NBM	D1	1.4	0.0	0.0	63%	933
NBM	D2	1.4	0.0	0.0	61%	933
NBM	D3	1.5	0.0	−0.1	59%	933
AIFS	D1	1.6	+0.2	−0.3	56%	933
AIFS	D2	1.6	+0.2	−0.2	57%	933
AIFS	D3	1.6	+0.1	−0.2	55%	933
ENS	D1	2.0	+0.6	−1.0	48%	932
ENS	D2	2.0	+0.6	−0.9	48%	932
ENS	D3	2.1	+0.6	−0.9	42%	932
GFS	D1	5.4	+4.0	+5.4	11%	933
GFS	D2	5.7	+4.3	+5.7	10%	933
GFS	D3	5.8	+4.3	+5.8	10%	933

Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.

Held back, scored on 2% of day-ahead days (needs 80%).

Scored 2026-10-28 03:48 UTC, daily at 16:30 UTC. Markdown · Method