Forecast accuracy: Houston, TX, US KHOU

How far each forecast landed from the value the market settled on. All stations · Forecast

Kalshi · NWS climate report · °F

Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.

Forecaster	Lead	MAE °F	vs blend	Bias	Within 1°	Days
Market forecast	D1	1.6	−0.5	−0.1	59%	928
Market forecast	D2	1.8	−0.4	−0.1	52%	928
Market forecast	D3	2.0	−0.3	0.0	48%	928
Blend (median)	D1	2.1	—	−1.5	42%	928
Blend (median)	D2	2.3	—	−1.4	39%	928
Blend (median)	D3	2.3	—	−1.3	38%	928
NBM	D1	1.6	−0.5	−0.1	59%	928
NBM	D2	1.8	−0.4	−0.1	52%	928
NBM	D3	2.0	−0.3	0.0	48%	928
AIFS	D1	3.6	+1.5	−3.5	15%	928
AIFS	D2	3.6	+1.4	−3.5	15%	928
AIFS	D3	3.6	+1.3	−3.4	18%	928
ENS	D1	3.3	+1.2	−2.8	23%	928
ENS	D2	3.4	+1.2	−2.8	23%	928
ENS	D3	3.6	+1.2	−2.7	22%	927
GFS	D1	2.5	+0.4	+0.7	40%	928
GFS	D2	2.8	+0.5	+0.9	36%	928
GFS	D3	3.1	+0.7	+1.0	33%	928

Forecaster	Lead	MAE °F	vs blend	Bias	Within 1°	Days
Market forecast	D1	1.8	+0.1	+0.8	58%	928
Market forecast	D2	2.0	+0.2	+0.8	55%	928
Market forecast	D3	2.2	+0.2	+0.8	50%	928
Blend (median)	D1	1.7	—	+0.4	55%	928
Blend (median)	D2	1.8	—	+0.4	53%	928
Blend (median)	D3	2.0	—	+0.5	51%	928
NBM	D1	1.8	+0.1	+0.8	58%	928
NBM	D2	2.0	+0.2	+0.8	55%	928
NBM	D3	2.2	+0.2	+0.8	50%	928
AIFS	D1	2.1	+0.4	−0.5	46%	928
AIFS	D2	2.1	+0.3	−0.4	48%	928
AIFS	D3	2.3	+0.3	−0.2	46%	928
ENS	D1	2.0	+0.3	−0.1	46%	928
ENS	D2	2.1	+0.2	−0.1	45%	928
ENS	D3	2.2	+0.2	−0.1	44%	927
GFS	D1	2.6	+0.8	+1.5	39%	928
GFS	D2	2.8	+1.0	+1.7	34%	928
GFS	D3	3.0	+1.0	+1.8	35%	928

Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.

Held back, scored on 1% of day-ahead days (needs 80%).

Scored 2026-10-28 03:48 UTC, daily at 16:30 UTC. Markdown · Method