# Forecast accuracy: Houston, TX, US (KHOU)

How far each forecast landed from the value the market settled on.

## Kalshi · NWS climate report · °F

### Live

Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.

### Backfill · highs

| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 1.6 | −0.5 | −0.1 | 59% | 928 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 1.8 | −0.4 | −0.1 | 52% | 928 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 2.0 | −0.3 | 0.0 | 48% | 928 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 2.1 | — | −1.5 | 42% | 928 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 2.3 | — | −1.4 | 39% | 928 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 2.3 | — | −1.3 | 38% | 928 |
| NBM | D1 | 1.6 | −0.5 | −0.1 | 59% | 928 |
| NBM | D2 | 1.8 | −0.4 | −0.1 | 52% | 928 |
| NBM | D3 | 2.0 | −0.3 | 0.0 | 48% | 928 |
| AIFS | D1 | 3.6 | +1.5 | −3.5 | 15% | 928 |
| AIFS | D2 | 3.6 | +1.4 | −3.5 | 15% | 928 |
| AIFS | D3 | 3.6 | +1.3 | −3.4 | 18% | 928 |
| ENS | D1 | 3.3 | +1.2 | −2.8 | 23% | 928 |
| ENS | D2 | 3.4 | +1.2 | −2.8 | 23% | 928 |
| ENS | D3 | 3.6 | +1.2 | −2.7 | 22% | 927 |
| GFS | D1 | 2.5 | +0.4 | +0.7 | 40% | 928 |
| GFS | D2 | 2.8 | +0.5 | +0.9 | 36% | 928 |
| GFS | D3 | 3.1 | +0.7 | +1.0 | 33% | 928 |

### Backfill · lows

| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 1.8 | +0.1 | +0.8 | 58% | 928 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 2.0 | +0.2 | +0.8 | 55% | 928 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 2.2 | +0.2 | +0.8 | 50% | 928 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 1.7 | — | +0.4 | 55% | 928 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 1.8 | — | +0.4 | 53% | 928 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 2.0 | — | +0.5 | 51% | 928 |
| NBM | D1 | 1.8 | +0.1 | +0.8 | 58% | 928 |
| NBM | D2 | 2.0 | +0.2 | +0.8 | 55% | 928 |
| NBM | D3 | 2.2 | +0.2 | +0.8 | 50% | 928 |
| AIFS | D1 | 2.1 | +0.4 | −0.5 | 46% | 928 |
| AIFS | D2 | 2.1 | +0.3 | −0.4 | 48% | 928 |
| AIFS | D3 | 2.3 | +0.3 | −0.2 | 46% | 928 |
| ENS | D1 | 2.0 | +0.3 | −0.1 | 46% | 928 |
| ENS | D2 | 2.1 | +0.2 | −0.1 | 45% | 928 |
| ENS | D3 | 2.2 | +0.2 | −0.1 | 44% | 927 |
| GFS | D1 | 2.6 | +0.8 | +1.5 | 39% | 928 |
| GFS | D2 | 2.8 | +1.0 | +1.7 | 34% | 928 |
| GFS | D3 | 3.0 | +1.0 | +1.8 | 35% | 928 |

## Polymarket · routine METARs · °F

### Live

Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.

### Backfill

Held back, scored on 1% of day-ahead days (needs 80%).

Method: https://groundhog.markets/skill#method
Forecast: https://groundhog.markets/p/houston

Scored 2026-10-28 03:48 UTC, daily at 16:30 UTC.
Page: https://groundhog.markets/skill/KHOU