Forecast accuracy: Newark, NJ, US KEWR
How far each forecast landed from the value the market settled on. All stations · Forecast
Kalshi · NWS climate report · °F
Live
Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.
Backfill · highs
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 2.2 | −0.9 | −0.3 | 45% | 931 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 2.4 | −0.9 | −0.3 | 42% | 931 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 2.8 | −0.8 | −0.3 | 36% | 931 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 3.1 | — | −2.6 | 28% | 931 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 3.4 | — | −2.8 | 25% | 931 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 3.6 | — | −2.7 | 25% | 931 |
| NBM | D1 | 2.2 | −0.9 | −0.3 | 45% | 931 |
| NBM | D2 | 2.4 | −0.9 | −0.3 | 42% | 931 |
| NBM | D3 | 2.8 | −0.8 | −0.3 | 36% | 931 |
| AIFS | D1 | 4.2 | +1.1 | −4.1 | 11% | 931 |
| AIFS | D2 | 4.5 | +1.1 | −4.3 | 13% | 931 |
| AIFS | D3 | 4.6 | +1.0 | −4.3 | 13% | 931 |
| ENS | D1 | 4.2 | +1.1 | −3.8 | 18% | 931 |
| ENS | D2 | 4.5 | +1.1 | −3.9 | 17% | 931 |
| ENS | D3 | 4.8 | +1.2 | −3.9 | 16% | 930 |
| GFS | D1 | 3.3 | +0.2 | −2.3 | 29% | 931 |
| GFS | D2 | 3.7 | +0.3 | −2.5 | 28% | 931 |
| GFS | D3 | 4.1 | +0.5 | −2.5 | 25% | 931 |
Backfill · lows
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 2.1 | +0.5 | +0.9 | 47% | 931 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 2.2 | +0.4 | +0.9 | 45% | 931 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 2.4 | +0.4 | +0.9 | 44% | 931 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 1.7 | — | −0.3 | 54% | 931 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 1.8 | — | −0.4 | 51% | 931 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 2.0 | — | −0.4 | 48% | 931 |
| NBM | D1 | 2.1 | +0.5 | +0.9 | 47% | 931 |
| NBM | D2 | 2.2 | +0.4 | +0.9 | 45% | 931 |
| NBM | D3 | 2.4 | +0.4 | +0.9 | 44% | 931 |
| AIFS | D1 | 1.8 | +0.1 | +0.2 | 52% | 931 |
| AIFS | D2 | 1.9 | +0.1 | +0.2 | 52% | 931 |
| AIFS | D3 | 2.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | 47% | 931 |
| ENS | D1 | 2.8 | +1.1 | −2.1 | 34% | 931 |
| ENS | D2 | 2.9 | +1.1 | −2.1 | 31% | 931 |
| ENS | D3 | 3.0 | +1.1 | −2.2 | 32% | 930 |
| GFS | D1 | 2.5 | +0.8 | −0.7 | 38% | 931 |
| GFS | D2 | 2.6 | +0.9 | −0.8 | 37% | 931 |
| GFS | D3 | 3.0 | +1.0 | −0.8 | 31% | 931 |
Scored 2026-10-28 03:48 UTC, daily at 16:30 UTC. Markdown · Method