Forecast accuracy: San Diego, CA, US KSAN
How far each forecast landed from the value the market settled on. All stations · Forecast
Kalshi · NWS climate report · °F
Live
Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.
Backfill · highs
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 2.0 | −1.5 | −0.1 | 48% | 933 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 2.1 | −1.4 | −0.1 | 46% | 933 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 2.4 | −1.3 | −0.2 | 44% | 933 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 3.5 | — | +2.1 | 27% | 933 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 3.6 | — | +2.1 | 27% | 933 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 3.7 | — | +2.1 | 23% | 933 |
| NBM | D1 | 2.0 | −1.5 | −0.1 | 48% | 933 |
| NBM | D2 | 2.1 | −1.4 | −0.1 | 46% | 933 |
| NBM | D3 | 2.4 | −1.3 | −0.2 | 44% | 933 |
| AIFS | D1 | 3.1 | −0.4 | −1.6 | 30% | 933 |
| AIFS | D2 | 3.1 | −0.5 | −1.6 | 28% | 933 |
| AIFS | D3 | 3.2 | −0.5 | −1.6 | 29% | 933 |
| ENS | D1 | 5.7 | +2.2 | +4.7 | 16% | 932 |
| ENS | D2 | 5.8 | +2.2 | +4.7 | 14% | 932 |
| ENS | D3 | 5.9 | +2.2 | +4.6 | 15% | 932 |
| GFS | D1 | 5.8 | +2.3 | +5.0 | 16% | 933 |
| GFS | D2 | 5.9 | +2.4 | +5.1 | 15% | 933 |
| GFS | D3 | 6.0 | +2.3 | +5.0 | 15% | 933 |
Backfill · lows
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 1.8 | −0.4 | 0.0 | 52% | 933 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 1.9 | −0.3 | 0.0 | 49% | 933 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 2.0 | −0.3 | +0.1 | 48% | 933 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 2.2 | — | −0.3 | 43% | 933 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 2.2 | — | −0.2 | 43% | 933 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 2.2 | — | −0.2 | 42% | 933 |
| NBM | D1 | 1.8 | −0.4 | 0.0 | 52% | 933 |
| NBM | D2 | 1.9 | −0.3 | 0.0 | 49% | 933 |
| NBM | D3 | 2.0 | −0.3 | +0.1 | 48% | 933 |
| AIFS | D1 | 2.5 | +0.3 | −0.8 | 35% | 933 |
| AIFS | D2 | 2.5 | +0.3 | −0.8 | 36% | 933 |
| AIFS | D3 | 2.5 | +0.2 | −0.7 | 37% | 933 |
| ENS | D1 | 3.5 | +1.3 | −2.1 | 19% | 932 |
| ENS | D2 | 3.5 | +1.3 | −2.1 | 19% | 932 |
| ENS | D3 | 3.5 | +1.3 | −2.1 | 19% | 932 |
| GFS | D1 | 4.4 | +2.2 | +3.5 | 26% | 933 |
| GFS | D2 | 4.6 | +2.4 | +3.8 | 24% | 933 |
| GFS | D3 | 4.6 | +2.4 | +3.8 | 23% | 933 |
Scored 2026-10-28 03:48 UTC, daily at 16:30 UTC. Markdown · Method