Forecast accuracy: Phoenix, AZ, US KPHX
How far each forecast landed from the value the market settled on. All stations · Forecast
Kalshi · NWS climate report · °F
Live
Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.
Backfill · highs
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 1.3 | −1.6 | −0.1 | 67% | 933 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 1.5 | −1.4 | −0.1 | 62% | 933 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 1.7 | −1.2 | −0.1 | 56% | 933 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 2.8 | — | −2.7 | 20% | 933 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 2.8 | — | −2.6 | 22% | 933 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 2.8 | — | −2.5 | 24% | 933 |
| NBM | D1 | 1.3 | −1.6 | −0.1 | 67% | 933 |
| NBM | D2 | 1.5 | −1.4 | −0.1 | 62% | 933 |
| NBM | D3 | 1.7 | −1.2 | −0.1 | 56% | 933 |
| AIFS | D1 | 3.6 | +0.8 | −3.5 | 16% | 933 |
| AIFS | D2 | 3.6 | +0.8 | −3.5 | 18% | 933 |
| AIFS | D3 | 3.6 | +0.8 | −3.5 | 17% | 933 |
| ENS | D1 | 3.0 | +0.1 | −2.8 | 21% | 932 |
| ENS | D2 | 2.9 | +0.1 | −2.6 | 26% | 932 |
| ENS | D3 | 3.0 | +0.1 | −2.6 | 27% | 932 |
| GFS | D1 | 3.9 | +1.1 | −3.7 | 10% | 933 |
| GFS | D2 | 4.0 | +1.1 | −3.7 | 11% | 933 |
| GFS | D3 | 4.1 | +1.2 | −3.7 | 11% | 933 |
Backfill · lows
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 60% | 933 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 59% | 933 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 57% | 933 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 1.6 | — | −0.4 | 57% | 933 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 1.7 | — | −0.4 | 56% | 933 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 1.8 | — | −0.4 | 55% | 933 |
| NBM | D1 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 60% | 933 |
| NBM | D2 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 59% | 933 |
| NBM | D3 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 57% | 933 |
| AIFS | D1 | 3.4 | +1.8 | −3.0 | 19% | 933 |
| AIFS | D2 | 3.3 | +1.6 | −2.8 | 21% | 933 |
| AIFS | D3 | 3.3 | +1.5 | −2.7 | 24% | 933 |
| ENS | D1 | 2.3 | +0.7 | −0.9 | 42% | 932 |
| ENS | D2 | 2.4 | +0.6 | −0.9 | 39% | 932 |
| ENS | D3 | 2.5 | +0.7 | −0.9 | 39% | 932 |
| GFS | D1 | 5.2 | +3.6 | +4.5 | 13% | 933 |
| GFS | D2 | 5.3 | +3.6 | +4.7 | 14% | 933 |
| GFS | D3 | 5.4 | +3.6 | +4.9 | 13% | 933 |
Scored 2026-10-28 03:48 UTC, daily at 16:30 UTC. Markdown · Method