Forecast accuracy: Oklahoma City, OK, US KOKC
How far each forecast landed from the value the market settled on. All stations · Forecast
Kalshi · NWS climate report · °F
Live
Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.
Backfill · highs
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 2.4 | 0.0 | −0.3 | 43% | 929 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 2.7 | 0.0 | −0.4 | 41% | 929 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 3.1 | +0.2 | −0.5 | 33% | 929 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 2.4 | — | −0.7 | 45% | 929 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 2.6 | — | −0.7 | 40% | 929 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 2.9 | — | −0.7 | 37% | 929 |
| NBM | D1 | 2.4 | 0.0 | −0.3 | 43% | 929 |
| NBM | D2 | 2.7 | 0.0 | −0.4 | 41% | 929 |
| NBM | D3 | 3.1 | +0.2 | −0.5 | 33% | 929 |
| AIFS | D1 | 3.4 | +1.1 | −2.9 | 26% | 929 |
| AIFS | D2 | 3.7 | +1.1 | −3.0 | 25% | 929 |
| AIFS | D3 | 3.9 | +0.9 | −3.0 | 24% | 929 |
| ENS | D1 | 2.9 | +0.5 | −0.7 | 36% | 929 |
| ENS | D2 | 3.2 | +0.6 | −0.7 | 32% | 929 |
| ENS | D3 | 3.5 | +0.6 | −0.6 | 30% | 928 |
| GFS | D1 | 3.4 | +1.0 | +0.9 | 28% | 929 |
| GFS | D2 | 3.8 | +1.2 | +1.1 | 26% | 929 |
| GFS | D3 | 4.2 | +1.2 | +1.0 | 24% | 929 |
Backfill · lows
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 2.5 | −1.0 | +1.0 | 40% | 929 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 2.7 | −1.0 | +1.0 | 39% | 929 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 2.8 | −1.1 | +0.9 | 39% | 929 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 3.5 | — | +3.0 | 24% | 929 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 3.7 | — | +3.2 | 23% | 929 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 3.8 | — | +3.3 | 21% | 929 |
| NBM | D1 | 2.5 | −1.0 | +1.0 | 40% | 929 |
| NBM | D2 | 2.7 | −1.0 | +1.0 | 39% | 929 |
| NBM | D3 | 2.8 | −1.1 | +0.9 | 39% | 929 |
| AIFS | D1 | 3.6 | +0.1 | +3.3 | 23% | 929 |
| AIFS | D2 | 3.7 | +0.1 | +3.3 | 22% | 929 |
| AIFS | D3 | 4.0 | +0.1 | +3.5 | 20% | 929 |
| ENS | D1 | 5.2 | +1.7 | +5.0 | 12% | 929 |
| ENS | D2 | 5.3 | +1.7 | +5.0 | 12% | 929 |
| ENS | D3 | 5.5 | +1.6 | +5.1 | 11% | 928 |
| GFS | D1 | 3.9 | +0.4 | +2.8 | 24% | 929 |
| GFS | D2 | 4.2 | +0.6 | +3.1 | 22% | 929 |
| GFS | D3 | 4.5 | +0.7 | +3.3 | 21% | 929 |
Scored 2026-10-28 03:48 UTC, daily at 16:30 UTC. Markdown · Method