Forecast accuracy: New Orleans, LA, US KMSY
How far each forecast landed from the value the market settled on. All stations · Forecast
Kalshi · NWS climate report · °F
Live
Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.
Backfill · highs
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 1.6 | −1.3 | −0.1 | 56% | 934 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 1.8 | −1.3 | −0.1 | 53% | 934 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 1.9 | −1.2 | −0.1 | 51% | 934 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 3.0 | — | −2.7 | 25% | 934 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 3.0 | — | −2.7 | 24% | 934 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 3.1 | — | −2.7 | 25% | 934 |
| NBM | D1 | 1.6 | −1.3 | −0.1 | 56% | 934 |
| NBM | D2 | 1.8 | −1.3 | −0.1 | 53% | 934 |
| NBM | D3 | 1.9 | −1.2 | −0.1 | 51% | 934 |
| AIFS | D1 | 4.7 | +1.7 | −4.6 | 7% | 934 |
| AIFS | D2 | 4.8 | +1.7 | −4.7 | 7% | 934 |
| AIFS | D3 | 4.9 | +1.8 | −4.7 | 8% | 934 |
| ENS | D1 | 3.8 | +0.8 | −3.6 | 14% | 934 |
| ENS | D2 | 3.9 | +0.8 | −3.6 | 15% | 934 |
| ENS | D3 | 4.0 | +0.9 | −3.7 | 16% | 933 |
| GFS | D1 | 2.7 | −0.2 | −1.9 | 32% | 934 |
| GFS | D2 | 2.9 | −0.1 | −1.9 | 31% | 934 |
| GFS | D3 | 3.0 | −0.1 | −1.8 | 31% | 934 |
Backfill · lows
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 2.1 | −0.1 | +0.8 | 47% | 934 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 2.2 | −0.1 | +0.8 | 44% | 934 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 2.3 | −0.1 | +0.8 | 42% | 934 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 2.2 | — | +1.4 | 45% | 934 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 2.3 | — | +1.5 | 45% | 934 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 2.4 | — | +1.5 | 43% | 934 |
| NBM | D1 | 2.1 | −0.1 | +0.8 | 47% | 934 |
| NBM | D2 | 2.2 | −0.1 | +0.8 | 44% | 934 |
| NBM | D3 | 2.3 | −0.1 | +0.8 | 42% | 934 |
| AIFS | D1 | 2.6 | +0.4 | +2.1 | 34% | 934 |
| AIFS | D2 | 2.7 | +0.4 | +2.1 | 34% | 934 |
| AIFS | D3 | 2.8 | +0.5 | +2.1 | 32% | 934 |
| ENS | D1 | 2.5 | +0.3 | +2.0 | 39% | 934 |
| ENS | D2 | 2.6 | +0.3 | +2.0 | 38% | 934 |
| ENS | D3 | 2.6 | +0.3 | +1.9 | 38% | 933 |
| GFS | D1 | 2.5 | +0.3 | +0.8 | 39% | 934 |
| GFS | D2 | 2.6 | +0.3 | +0.9 | 39% | 934 |
| GFS | D3 | 2.8 | +0.4 | +0.9 | 37% | 934 |
Scored 2026-10-28 03:48 UTC, daily at 16:30 UTC. Markdown · Method