Forecast accuracy: Minneapolis, MN, US KMSP
How far each forecast landed from the value the market settled on. All stations · Forecast
Kalshi · NWS climate report · °F
Live
Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.
Backfill · highs
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 2.3 | −0.3 | −0.3 | 44% | 935 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 2.7 | −0.2 | −0.4 | 35% | 935 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 3.1 | −0.1 | −0.4 | 31% | 935 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 2.6 | — | −1.7 | 35% | 935 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 2.9 | — | −1.7 | 30% | 935 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 3.2 | — | −1.7 | 29% | 935 |
| NBM | D1 | 2.3 | −0.3 | −0.3 | 44% | 935 |
| NBM | D2 | 2.7 | −0.2 | −0.4 | 35% | 935 |
| NBM | D3 | 3.1 | −0.1 | −0.4 | 31% | 935 |
| AIFS | D1 | 3.9 | +1.3 | −3.6 | 21% | 935 |
| AIFS | D2 | 4.1 | +1.2 | −3.7 | 19% | 935 |
| AIFS | D3 | 4.2 | +1.0 | −3.6 | 19% | 935 |
| ENS | D1 | 3.3 | +0.7 | −2.2 | 28% | 935 |
| ENS | D2 | 3.5 | +0.6 | −2.2 | 27% | 935 |
| ENS | D3 | 3.9 | +0.7 | −2.2 | 24% | 934 |
| GFS | D1 | 3.0 | +0.4 | −0.9 | 34% | 935 |
| GFS | D2 | 3.5 | +0.6 | −1.0 | 30% | 935 |
| GFS | D3 | 4.2 | +1.0 | −1.1 | 26% | 935 |
Backfill · lows
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 2.4 | +0.5 | +1.0 | 49% | 935 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 2.6 | +0.6 | +1.0 | 44% | 935 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 2.9 | +0.6 | +1.0 | 38% | 935 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 1.9 | — | 0.0 | 53% | 935 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 2.0 | — | +0.1 | 50% | 935 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 2.3 | — | +0.2 | 44% | 935 |
| NBM | D1 | 2.4 | +0.5 | +1.0 | 49% | 935 |
| NBM | D2 | 2.6 | +0.6 | +1.0 | 44% | 935 |
| NBM | D3 | 2.9 | +0.6 | +1.0 | 38% | 935 |
| AIFS | D1 | 2.5 | +0.6 | −0.3 | 41% | 935 |
| AIFS | D2 | 2.6 | +0.6 | −0.2 | 40% | 935 |
| AIFS | D3 | 2.8 | +0.5 | 0.0 | 38% | 935 |
| ENS | D1 | 2.3 | +0.5 | −0.8 | 44% | 935 |
| ENS | D2 | 2.5 | +0.4 | −0.8 | 41% | 935 |
| ENS | D3 | 2.7 | +0.4 | −0.7 | 40% | 934 |
| GFS | D1 | 2.7 | +0.9 | +0.2 | 34% | 935 |
| GFS | D2 | 3.0 | +1.0 | +0.3 | 31% | 935 |
| GFS | D3 | 3.3 | +1.0 | +0.4 | 30% | 935 |
Scored 2026-10-28 03:48 UTC, daily at 16:30 UTC. Markdown · Method