Forecast accuracy: Las Vegas, NV, US KLAS
How far each forecast landed from the value the market settled on. All stations · Forecast
Kalshi · NWS climate report · °F
Live
Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.
Backfill · highs
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 1.2 | −2.6 | −0.1 | 68% | 933 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 1.5 | −2.3 | −0.1 | 61% | 933 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 1.7 | −2.0 | −0.1 | 55% | 933 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 3.8 | — | −3.7 | 8% | 933 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 3.7 | — | −3.5 | 10% | 933 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 3.6 | — | −3.4 | 13% | 933 |
| NBM | D1 | 1.2 | −2.6 | −0.1 | 68% | 933 |
| NBM | D2 | 1.5 | −2.3 | −0.1 | 61% | 933 |
| NBM | D3 | 1.7 | −2.0 | −0.1 | 55% | 933 |
| AIFS | D1 | 4.5 | +0.7 | −4.5 | 7% | 933 |
| AIFS | D2 | 4.5 | +0.8 | −4.4 | 10% | 933 |
| AIFS | D3 | 4.4 | +0.8 | −4.3 | 11% | 933 |
| ENS | D1 | 3.9 | +0.1 | −3.7 | 9% | 932 |
| ENS | D2 | 3.8 | +0.1 | −3.6 | 11% | 932 |
| ENS | D3 | 3.8 | +0.1 | −3.5 | 13% | 932 |
| GFS | D1 | 5.2 | +1.3 | −5.0 | 5% | 933 |
| GFS | D2 | 5.1 | +1.3 | −4.8 | 6% | 933 |
| GFS | D3 | 5.1 | +1.4 | −4.7 | 8% | 933 |
Backfill · lows
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 1.9 | −1.5 | 0.0 | 48% | 933 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 1.9 | −1.4 | 0.0 | 48% | 933 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 2.0 | −1.3 | +0.1 | 47% | 933 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 3.4 | — | −2.7 | 28% | 933 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 3.3 | — | −2.6 | 27% | 933 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 3.3 | — | −2.5 | 28% | 933 |
| NBM | D1 | 1.9 | −1.5 | 0.0 | 48% | 933 |
| NBM | D2 | 1.9 | −1.4 | 0.0 | 48% | 933 |
| NBM | D3 | 2.0 | −1.3 | +0.1 | 47% | 933 |
| AIFS | D1 | 4.0 | +0.6 | −3.5 | 22% | 933 |
| AIFS | D2 | 3.9 | +0.6 | −3.3 | 23% | 933 |
| AIFS | D3 | 3.9 | +0.6 | −3.1 | 23% | 933 |
| ENS | D1 | 4.1 | +0.8 | −3.2 | 17% | 932 |
| ENS | D2 | 4.1 | +0.8 | −3.2 | 19% | 932 |
| ENS | D3 | 4.1 | +0.9 | −3.1 | 18% | 932 |
| GFS | D1 | 4.2 | +0.9 | −3.4 | 20% | 933 |
| GFS | D2 | 4.2 | +0.9 | −3.3 | 18% | 933 |
| GFS | D3 | 4.2 | +0.9 | −3.1 | 22% | 933 |
Scored 2026-10-28 03:48 UTC, daily at 16:30 UTC. Markdown · Method