Forecast accuracy: Denver, CO, US KDEN
How far each forecast landed from the value the market settled on. All stations · Forecast
Kalshi · NWS climate report · °F
Live
Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.
Backfill · highs
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 2.3 | −0.5 | −0.1 | 46% | 934 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 2.6 | −0.5 | −0.1 | 42% | 934 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 2.9 | −0.4 | −0.1 | 37% | 934 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 2.8 | — | −1.6 | 32% | 934 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 3.0 | — | −1.7 | 31% | 934 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 3.3 | — | −1.7 | 29% | 934 |
| NBM | D1 | 2.3 | −0.5 | −0.1 | 46% | 934 |
| NBM | D2 | 2.6 | −0.5 | −0.1 | 42% | 934 |
| NBM | D3 | 2.9 | −0.4 | −0.1 | 37% | 934 |
| AIFS | D1 | 4.9 | +2.1 | −4.6 | 14% | 934 |
| AIFS | D2 | 5.1 | +2.1 | −4.8 | 13% | 934 |
| AIFS | D3 | 5.3 | +1.9 | −4.7 | 15% | 934 |
| ENS | D1 | 3.4 | +0.6 | −2.2 | 24% | 933 |
| ENS | D2 | 3.7 | +0.6 | −2.4 | 24% | 933 |
| ENS | D3 | 3.9 | +0.6 | −2.3 | 25% | 933 |
| GFS | D1 | 3.0 | +0.2 | −0.7 | 36% | 934 |
| GFS | D2 | 3.3 | +0.2 | −0.8 | 34% | 934 |
| GFS | D3 | 3.8 | +0.4 | −0.7 | 29% | 934 |
Backfill · lows
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 3.0 | −0.7 | +1.0 | 34% | 934 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 3.2 | −0.6 | +1.0 | 32% | 934 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 3.3 | −0.6 | +1.1 | 32% | 934 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 3.8 | — | +3.2 | 26% | 934 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 3.8 | — | +3.2 | 24% | 934 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 3.9 | — | +3.2 | 25% | 934 |
| NBM | D1 | 3.0 | −0.7 | +1.0 | 34% | 934 |
| NBM | D2 | 3.2 | −0.6 | +1.0 | 32% | 934 |
| NBM | D3 | 3.3 | −0.6 | +1.1 | 32% | 934 |
| AIFS | D1 | 3.7 | −0.1 | +3.1 | 26% | 934 |
| AIFS | D2 | 3.8 | 0.0 | +3.1 | 25% | 934 |
| AIFS | D3 | 3.9 | 0.0 | +3.3 | 24% | 934 |
| ENS | D1 | 4.6 | +0.8 | +3.9 | 21% | 933 |
| ENS | D2 | 4.7 | +0.8 | +3.9 | 22% | 933 |
| ENS | D3 | 4.7 | +0.8 | +3.9 | 20% | 933 |
| GFS | D1 | 5.0 | +1.2 | +4.6 | 17% | 934 |
| GFS | D2 | 5.1 | +1.3 | +4.6 | 16% | 934 |
| GFS | D3 | 5.2 | +1.3 | +4.7 | 15% | 934 |
Polymarket · routine METARs · °F
Live
Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.
Backfill
Held back, scored on 3% of day-ahead days (needs 80%).
Scored 2026-10-28 03:48 UTC, daily at 16:30 UTC. Markdown · Method