Forecast accuracy: Washington, DC, US KDCA
How far each forecast landed from the value the market settled on. All stations · Forecast
Kalshi · NWS climate report · °F
Live
Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.
Backfill · highs
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 2.2 | −0.5 | −0.2 | 44% | 928 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 2.5 | −0.4 | −0.2 | 39% | 928 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 2.9 | −0.3 | −0.3 | 34% | 928 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 2.7 | — | −1.6 | 32% | 928 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 3.0 | — | −1.6 | 30% | 928 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 3.2 | — | −1.6 | 30% | 928 |
| NBM | D1 | 2.2 | −0.5 | −0.2 | 44% | 928 |
| NBM | D2 | 2.5 | −0.4 | −0.2 | 39% | 928 |
| NBM | D3 | 2.9 | −0.3 | −0.3 | 34% | 928 |
| AIFS | D1 | 3.3 | +0.6 | −2.9 | 26% | 928 |
| AIFS | D2 | 3.5 | +0.5 | −3.0 | 23% | 928 |
| AIFS | D3 | 3.7 | +0.5 | −2.9 | 22% | 928 |
| ENS | D1 | 3.6 | +0.9 | −2.2 | 23% | 928 |
| ENS | D2 | 3.9 | +0.9 | −2.3 | 22% | 928 |
| ENS | D3 | 4.1 | +0.9 | −2.3 | 23% | 927 |
| GFS | D1 | 3.2 | +0.5 | −1.3 | 29% | 928 |
| GFS | D2 | 3.6 | +0.6 | −1.4 | 24% | 928 |
| GFS | D3 | 3.9 | +0.7 | −1.4 | 28% | 928 |
Backfill · lows
| Forecaster | Lead | MAE °F | vs blend | Bias | Within 1° | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market forecast | D1 | 2.0 | +0.1 | +0.7 | 52% | 928 |
| Market forecast | D2 | 2.1 | +0.1 | +0.7 | 48% | 928 |
| Market forecast | D3 | 2.3 | +0.1 | +0.7 | 45% | 928 |
| Blend (median) | D1 | 1.9 | — | −0.9 | 47% | 928 |
| Blend (median) | D2 | 2.0 | — | −0.9 | 47% | 928 |
| Blend (median) | D3 | 2.2 | — | −0.8 | 43% | 928 |
| NBM | D1 | 2.0 | +0.1 | +0.7 | 52% | 928 |
| NBM | D2 | 2.1 | +0.1 | +0.7 | 48% | 928 |
| NBM | D3 | 2.3 | +0.1 | +0.7 | 45% | 928 |
| AIFS | D1 | 2.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 | 48% | 928 |
| AIFS | D2 | 2.1 | +0.1 | +0.4 | 46% | 928 |
| AIFS | D3 | 2.2 | 0.0 | +0.4 | 44% | 928 |
| ENS | D1 | 2.7 | +0.8 | −2.1 | 33% | 928 |
| ENS | D2 | 2.9 | +0.8 | −2.1 | 33% | 928 |
| ENS | D3 | 3.0 | +0.8 | −2.1 | 30% | 927 |
| GFS | D1 | 3.9 | +2.0 | −3.5 | 18% | 928 |
| GFS | D2 | 3.9 | +1.9 | −3.4 | 20% | 928 |
| GFS | D3 | 4.1 | +1.9 | −3.4 | 20% | 928 |
Scored 2026-10-28 03:48 UTC, daily at 16:30 UTC. Markdown · Method