Forecast accuracy: Atlanta, GA, US KATL

How far each forecast landed from the value the market settled on. All stations · Forecast

Kalshi · NWS climate report · °F

Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.

Forecaster	Lead	MAE °F	vs blend	Bias	Within 1°	Days
Market forecast	D1	2.0	−0.5	−0.3	50%	932
Market forecast	D2	2.2	−0.5	−0.2	47%	932
Market forecast	D3	2.5	−0.3	−0.2	41%	932
Blend (median)	D1	2.5	—	−1.7	36%	932
Blend (median)	D2	2.7	—	−1.7	33%	932
Blend (median)	D3	2.8	—	−1.6	35%	932
NBM	D1	2.0	−0.5	−0.3	50%	932
NBM	D2	2.2	−0.5	−0.2	47%	932
NBM	D3	2.5	−0.3	−0.2	41%	932
AIFS	D1	4.2	+1.7	−4.1	11%	932
AIFS	D2	4.3	+1.6	−4.1	11%	932
AIFS	D3	4.4	+1.6	−4.1	13%	932
ENS	D1	3.4	+0.9	−2.6	24%	932
ENS	D2	3.5	+0.8	−2.6	26%	932
ENS	D3	3.6	+0.8	−2.5	25%	931
GFS	D1	2.9	+0.4	−0.1	32%	932
GFS	D2	3.2	+0.5	−0.1	27%	932
GFS	D3	3.4	+0.7	−0.1	29%	932

Forecaster	Lead	MAE °F	vs blend	Bias	Within 1°	Days
Market forecast	D1	1.7	+0.3	+0.6	60%	931
Market forecast	D2	1.9	+0.3	+0.6	55%	931
Market forecast	D3	2.1	+0.4	+0.6	51%	931
Blend (median)	D1	1.4	—	−0.2	64%	931
Blend (median)	D2	1.6	—	−0.1	60%	931
Blend (median)	D3	1.7	—	−0.1	56%	931
NBM	D1	1.7	+0.3	+0.6	60%	931
NBM	D2	1.9	+0.3	+0.6	55%	931
NBM	D3	2.1	+0.4	+0.6	51%	931
AIFS	D1	2.0	+0.6	−0.5	50%	931
AIFS	D2	2.1	+0.5	−0.5	48%	931
AIFS	D3	2.2	+0.5	−0.4	46%	931
ENS	D1	1.9	+0.4	−1.2	48%	931
ENS	D2	2.0	+0.4	−1.2	48%	931
ENS	D3	2.1	+0.4	−1.1	45%	930
GFS	D1	2.3	+0.9	+0.8	41%	931
GFS	D2	2.5	+0.9	+0.9	39%	931
GFS	D3	2.7	+1.0	+1.0	36%	931

Held back, 3 of 30 days so far.

Held back, scored on 2% of day-ahead days (needs 80%).

Scored 2026-10-28 03:48 UTC, daily at 16:30 UTC. Markdown · Method